While the volume of crude oil imports rose by a modest 5.5%, the financial impact was disproportionate, with the oil bill skyrocketing by 87.8% compared to the previous year. This record-breaking expenditure highlights the country’s vulnerability as it pivots away from its traditional reliance on Middle Eastern suppliers—which previously accounted for 90% of its intake—toward costlier alternatives from the United States, Nigeria, and Azerbaijan.

Analysts at the Daiwa Institute of Research point to the combination of recovering demand and the premium paid for U.S. crude as primary drivers of this inflationary pressure. The geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with escalating tensions between Tehran and Washington limiting the prospect of any near-term relief in energy costs. As regional stability remains fragile, market participants like Hiroyuki Kikukawa of Nissan Securities note that while the market lacks the momentum for a full-scale price explosion, persistent threats and sporadic attacks keep energy prices firmly in elevated territory.