Commercial crude stocks are projected to have fallen by 400,000 barrels to 419.9 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 6. The consensus among nine surveyed analysts reflects a fractured market outlook: five respondents anticipate a decline, while four predict a build. Estimates vary widely, ranging from a 4.6 million-barrel withdrawal to a 2.6 million-barrel increase.

Diverging Fuel Trends

While crude levels tighten, gasoline inventories are expected to edge higher. Analysts forecast a 300,000-barrel increase, bringing total gasoline stocks to 258.2 million barrels. Conversely, distillate fuel stocks—primarily diesel—are set for a significant drop. The survey suggests a 2.1 million-barrel decline, though forecasts for this category remain volatile, with one firm predicting a withdrawal as high as 4.1 million barrels.

Refinery activity remains a critical driver of these inventory shifts. Capacity utilization is expected to dip slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 90.2%, a level that remains high for this time of year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will provide the definitive figures when it releases its weekly report on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EST.