Growth forecasts for the year hover at a meager 0.6%, with capital investment in decline and interest rates locked at 14%. The fiscal landscape remains strained, as the federal deficit hit 5.8 trillion rubles through August, compounded by a 16.7% drop in oil and gas revenues. Despite these headwinds, the Kremlin maintains a war footing, prioritizing military expansion over fiscal stability. The upcoming budget allocates 17.1 trillion rubles to defense—a 27% increase—funded through aggressive taxation and elevated borrowing.

Economic resilience persists primarily through low unemployment and rising real wages, shielding the state from immediate collapse. High energy prices provide a buffer, potentially injecting 1 trillion rubles into the National Wealth Fund. However, the disconnect between state spending and private sector sentiment is widening. A survey by RBC indicates that more than half of senior business executives anticipate further deterioration in conditions, signaling that while the state can sustain its military commitments, the broader domestic economy is increasingly strained by the cost of the conflict.