Michelle Brohard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, argues that Gulf nations are likely striking private deals with Tehran to keep their oil flowing. These producers, skeptical of long-term U.S. military protection, may be funneling 10 to 20 percent of their cargo value to Iran to avoid disruptions. While these claims remain unverified, the financial architecture for such transfers is already under scrutiny. The U.S. Treasury recently sanctioned the BitBank cryptocurrency exchange, alleging it facilitated payments from the Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The legality of these potential tolls faces significant hurdles under international law. While the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea guarantees transit passage through international straits without charges, Iran has never ratified the treaty. Instead, Tehran cites its own 1993 Marine Areas Act to justify potential fees, framing them as a component of a permanent agreement to guarantee safe transit. As producers scramble to move crude via ship-to-ship transfers and alternative ports, the added costs of these workarounds and potential protection money continue to weigh on global freight rates and market stability.