The May total of 33 million barrels marks a significant retreat from last year’s average of 11.6 million barrels per day. Refiners are deliberately throttling intake and curbing fuel exports to prioritize domestic supplies of diesel and gasoline amidst a volatile Persian Gulf shipping environment. Traders view this reduced appetite as a temporary cap on global prices, yet the strategy relies heavily on an estimated one-billion-barrel storage reserve.

Societe Generale analysts noted that Beijing’s reduced buying acts as a primary buffer against global supply shocks, even outpacing coordinated releases from the U.S. and European strategic reserves. However, this safety net is finite. Experts at ING warn that as these reserves dwindle through the summer months, China will be forced to return to the market. With a projected third-quarter demand surge of over 3 million barrels per day, the current cooling effect on crude prices may prove fleeting if inventory replenishment begins while geopolitical tensions persist.