While industry analysts and the IEA’s Fatih Birol previously suggested Europe could face kerosene deficits by June, the European Commission is pushing to stabilize the market through accelerated coordination among member states. Domestic production has been in steady decline for two decades as refineries shuttered or pivoted toward biofuels, forcing a reliance on imports. However, carriers are now diversifying their procurement, turning to suppliers in the United States and Nigeria to fill the void left by regional instability.

Major players including Lufthansa and Air France-KLM anticipate fuel cost increases exceeding $2 billion each this year. Yet, the consensus among airline leadership remains focused on the financial burden rather than physical availability. International Airlines Group, parent company of British Airways, recently confirmed it expects adequate supply throughout the peak summer season. Refiners are currently maximizing jet fuel output to mitigate the impact of the loss, allowing airlines to maintain their primary routes despite the heightened cost environment.