The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry plans to have between two and five of these reactors operational by the 2040s, aiming to add 16 gigawatts of generation capacity to the national grid. This transition addresses a looming 5.5 million kilowatt supply shortfall projected for 2040, a deficit equivalent to the output of five standard reactors. Current projections suggest that without new construction, Japan’s reliance on coal, oil, and natural gas—which currently account for roughly 70% of electricity generation—will remain dangerously high.

While the government eyes a 20% nuclear share of the power mix by 2040, the path forward faces significant economic headwinds. Rising construction costs have triggered skepticism among industry analysts regarding the feasibility of the full 14-reactor target. With 24 reactors currently undergoing decommissioning, the government must balance the urgent need for energy security against the reality of a global nuclear industry struggling with inflation and extended project timelines.