The blockage of the world’s most vital oil chokepoint has hit Iraq harder than any other Middle Eastern producer. While neighbors like Saudi Arabia and the UAE possess alternative infrastructure to export their crude, Iraq remains tethered to the Gulf. Consequently, output from southern fields has cratered by 70%, falling to 1.3 million barrels per day from pre-conflict levels of 4.3 million.

Baghdad is now fast-tracking the restoration of the northern export route to bypass the maritime gridlock. Originally eyeing a capacity of 500,000 barrels per day, the administration has revised its target upward to 770,000 barrels per day. This shift is critical, as petroleum sales account for 90% of state revenue, leaving the nation with little fiscal buffer to weather the current energy crisis.