The May figures highlight a fractured energy market struggling under the weight of geopolitical volatility. Iran remains the hardest hit, with exports reaching a six-year trough following a U.S. naval blockade triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This maritime choke point has reverberated across the region, most notably in Iraq. Production from Iraq’s southern fields has cratered by 70%, leaving the nation pumping just 1.3 million barrels daily, down from a pre-war average of 4.3 million.

While the conflict stifles output in the Gulf, producers geographically insulated from the fighting have seen modest gains. Venezuela pushed exports to 1.25 million barrels per day in May, marking a 61% surge compared to the same period last year. Nigeria similarly ramped up, with crude production hitting 1.49 million barrels daily. Despite these localized upticks, the broader OPEC+ strategy of increasing collective quotas—now up by 600,000 barrels daily since April—remains largely symbolic. On-the-ground realities of war continue to override policy, rendering these paper production targets unattainable in the current climate.