A research team led by Lefteris Farmakis and Themistoklis Fiotakis attributes the recent three-month decline to a combination of a surging U.S. dollar, high-performing equity markets, and the unwinding of leveraged positions. Central bank selling from Turkey and Russia further exacerbated the dip from the January peak to the June trough. However, the bank maintains that these were short-term shocks rather than fundamental shifts in market trajectory.

Barclays identifies persistent inflation, policy uncertainty, and ongoing central bank reserve diversification as the primary engines for future growth. Because these variables accumulate influence over time, they were unable to offset the immediate volatility of the Hormuz crisis. With the geopolitical situation cooling, the bank estimates a fair value of $4,150 per ounce and anticipates a return to consistent central bank accumulation. Investors are advised to consider exposure to mining firms such as Newmont, Agnico Eagle, and Fresnillo to capitalize on the expected rebound.