Spot gold climbed 0.50% to $4,331.10 an ounce, while silver remained largely flat at $69.995. The current market environment is defined by the oil-to-rates channel, where falling crude prices have dampened inflation expectations and forced gold to trade more like a interest-rate-sensitive asset than a traditional war hedge. While the Strait of Hormuz deal offers a path toward supply normalization, analysts remain cautious, noting that physical market repairs will likely take months to materialize.

Investors are now bracing for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets anticipate no change to the 3.50% to 3.75% target range, but the updated Summary of Economic Projections looms as a significant risk event. Traders are closely watching whether the Fed will abandon its easing bias or signal a higher-for-longer rate path. Should the committee validate later-year hikes, gold could face pressure to retest the $4,300 floor, while a less-hawkish tone from Warsh would likely solidify the recent rebound in precious metals.