The sudden shift in the market structure, which saw Dubai and Murban futures flip into contango for the first time since February 28, signals a rapid easing of supply fears. With the market pricing in the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, traders are diverting millions of barrels away from traditional Asian buyers. ExxonMobil is currently moving at least five supertankers loaded with Murban and Das crudes toward European ports, where the supplies are now priced more competitively than U.S. West Texas Intermediate.

Simultaneously, approximately 15 million barrels of Upper Zakum, Murban, Oman, and Iraqi Basrah Medium crudes are en route to the U.S. under shipments managed by Exxon and TotalEnergies. Should the diplomatic deal hold, analysts expect further price declines as tankers currently anchored in the Persian Gulf return to the global market and producers ramp up volumes curtailed during the conflict.