David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media, warns that the 60-day negotiation window does not guarantee a swift restoration of supply. While the market has responded to news of the memorandum by pushing Brent Crude below $80 per barrel, logistical hurdles persist. Iran must clear mines from the critical chokepoint, and regional producers cannot simply flip a switch to restore the 12 million barrels per day of shut-in production.

Global stockpiles continue to draw at a rate of roughly 2.5 million barrels per day through the third quarter. This ongoing deficit, combined with the uncertainty surrounding infrastructure recovery, suggests that the current downward trend in prices is not a certainty. According to Fyfe, the market remains susceptible to sudden volatility, making any assumption of a steady decline in crude costs premature.