While the market is pricing in a swift restoration of Middle Eastern oil flows, major analysts including Goldman Sachs and Energy Aspects warn that a diplomatic agreement does not equate to immediate supply. Shipping firms remain wary, mines must still be cleared, and Gulf production shut-ins require significant time to reverse. The rush to liquidate ignores the persistent strain on global reserves, which have been drawing down by nearly 4 million barrels per day since late February.

U.S. crude stocks have plummeted by over 50 million barrels in nine weeks, leaving storage at Cushing near critical minimums. Even conservative forecasts anticipate only a gradual return of supply, while nations that depleted strategic reserves will soon face the necessity of restocking. As the virtual market prices in a recovery that remains theoretical, the physical reality of dwindling inventories suggests that current valuations may be deeply oversold.