Most Asian buyers have already secured enough non-Middle Eastern cargo to cover their needs through July, rendering immediate spot market intervention unnecessary. Even as Middle Eastern producers attempt to lure buyers with discounts, traders note that these price cuts remain insufficient to offset the exorbitant shipping and insurance expenses. The logistical risk of navigating the Strait of Hormuz has transformed from a supply concern into a structural barrier, making waterborne storage uneconomical and suppressing demand.

Simultaneously, the supply landscape is shifting as regional producers, including Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, prepare to ramp up output. Iran is also testing the market, reaching out to buyers in India, South Korea, and Japan following a temporary U.S. sanctions waiver. However, refiners remain cautious; the two-month duration of the U.S.-Iran memorandum leaves little room for long-term planning. While Asian demand is expected to recover, the recent volatility has pushed importers toward a permanent diversification strategy, prioritizing supply chains outside the Middle East to hedge against future energy disruptions.