While daily ship crossings remain well below historical norms, the commodity market is signaling optimism regarding supply chain recovery. Middle Eastern benchmarks Dubai and Murban have slipped into contango, reflecting a temporary surplus in Asian markets. This shift comes despite persistent regional friction, highlighted by an IRG drone attack on the Ever Lovely cargo ship near the Omani coast, which damaged the vessel but failed to halt the broader trend of reopening.

Operational capacity is beginning to stabilize elsewhere. Saudi Aramco has resumed loadings in the Persian Gulf using its own VLCC fleet, while Qatar prepares to restart operations at its Ras Laffan LNG export facility. Meanwhile, Chinese state-controlled refiners are exploring a resumption of Iranian oil purchases, capitalizing on a narrow 60-day window provided by US policy. These developments, coupled with the resilience of Venezuelan production following a 7.2-magnitude earthquake, suggest that the initial shock of the conflict is being superseded by logistical recalibration. Pressure remains, however, from potential policy interventions, including US investigations into domestic gasoline pricing and Russian discussions of a possible diesel export ban to offset domestic refinery disruptions.