Financial markets anticipate Maersk will post fourth-quarter revenue of $12.87 billion, a 12% drop from the previous year, according to a FactSet consensus. Underlying EBITDA is projected to hit $1.84 billion, down significantly from the $3.6 billion recorded in the same period last year. Despite these cooling figures, Maersk’s stock has climbed roughly 51% over the past twelve months, reflecting investor optimism regarding recent volume growth.

Haider Anjum, a senior analyst at Jyske Markets, suggests that global container volume growth is currently outpacing Maersk’s own conservative guidance. This momentum is largely fueled by an export boom from China into Europe and neighboring Asian markets. However, this short-term strength masks structural risks. The shipping industry is grappling with a wave of new vessel deliveries and a lack of ship scrapping, which threatens to saturate the market with excess capacity even as macroeconomic uncertainty dampens global demand.

The Threat of Market Imbalance

The long-term outlook remains cautious as industry dynamics shift. Sydbank analyst Mikkel Emil Jensen predicts that the combination of falling freight rates and diminished consumer demand will weigh heavily on the bottom line. According to Jensen, Maersk’s earnings could turn negative by 2026, a projection that may influence the company’s capital allocation strategy and deter aggressive new buyback programs.

Investors are closely watching for updates on shareholder returns and future guidance, which Sydbank suggests will be highly volatile:

• A potential $1 billion share buyback program remains possible given the company's healthy balance sheet.
• Sydbank models a 2025 dividend of 500 kroner per share.
• EBIT guidance for 2026 is estimated between $1 billion and -$4 billion, with the lower end reflecting a potential return to normal traffic in the Red Sea.