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Iraq Oil Exports Surge Toward Pre-War Benchmarks

Iraq’s oil exports reached 3.4 million barrels per day in October, a sharp recovery from September’s 2.65 million. Oil Minister Bassem Mohammed Khudair confirmed the figures on Monday, noting that output is now nearing the levels last seen before the conflict with Iran disrupted transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iraq Oil Exports Surge Toward Pre-War Benchmarks

The current export strategy relies on a diversified network, utilizing the Strait of Hormuz, the Iraq-Turkey pipeline to Ceyhan, and recent additions of tanker truck routes through Syria. To mitigate war-risk premiums for international buyers, the state-owned Iraqi Oil Tankers Company successfully moved 2 million barrels past the Strait of Hormuz using a very large crude carrier. This shift marks a significant departure from the traditional free-on-board model, where buyers historically assumed transit risks at Basra terminals. Plans are now underway for the state marketer to acquire its own fleet of tankers.

This rebound follows a period of severe economic contraction, characterized by a 70% drop in southern output during the early months of the war. Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein recently estimated total national losses at $60 billion, a figure reflected in the $20 billion depletion of foreign currency reserves and the recent devaluation of the dinar. With oil accounting for 90% of government revenue, Baghdad is prioritizing infrastructure expansion to push capacity toward 5 million barrels per day. These efforts include the development of new pipelines to Fishkhabour and the Syrian port of Baniyas alongside additional export terminals.

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