December Brent crude futures rose 4% to reach their highest closing point since May 4, while West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2.4% to settle at $99.47 a barrel. Analysts at MUFG noted that while the targeting of Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field has not yet materially damaged production, the persistent threat to energy facilities keeps the market on edge. This volatility is compounded by reports of a tanker hit by an unidentified projectile near Oman, keeping shipping lanes in a state of high alert.

Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation remain fragile. Washington is currently moving a third aircraft carrier strike group toward the region and has ordered nonemergency government employees to depart Saudi Arabia. Despite these pressures, data from Kpler shows that crude exports remain robust, with shipments through the Strait of Hormuz averaging 24 million barrels a day—surpassing prewar levels. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration reported a 3.1 million barrel decline in U.S. commercial crude inventories, further tightening the global supply picture as the U.S. midterm elections approach.