Trump had predicted the war would end “right after the election.” On November 4, however, he said he would make the same decision again because “you can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon.” Shayan Samii, a US-based national-security expert, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that Trump has two months before Democrats take power to act without electoral considerations. He said a president can cite national security to justify military action, and legislation limiting the war would require Trump’s signature or a two-thirds majority in both chambers to override a veto.

One option is a full return to war. Trump has hinted at renewed large-scale strikes, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly urged him to resume them. A campaign could again target infrastructure, as US and Israeli strikes did in April, and potentially expand to energy facilities at Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal. Shahin Modarres, an Iranian security expert in Rome, told Radio Farda he expected a severe conflict, with infrastructure, energy and economic sectors, as well as remaining nuclear and missile facilities, at risk. He singled out Pickaxe Mountain, a fortified underground site near Natanz that Trump has threatened since July.

A shorter strike followed by an exit is another possibility. Trump could target Pickaxe Mountain, declare Iran’s nuclear program sufficiently damaged and seek a deal involving the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, some sanctions relief and delayed nuclear talks. But parts of the facility are believed to lie 80 to 100 meters underground, making damage difficult to verify. Iran’s military command has warned that an attack there would renew war across the region, while Tehran could try to prolong fighting and increase its costs for Washington.

Trump could also maintain the current “no war, no peace” posture, with defensive strikes, a naval blockade and US Navy escorts for shipping through Hormuz. Samii doubts that limited strikes can sustain it. A fourth route is a narrow, Qatari-mediated interim deal resembling the June memorandum of understanding, which briefly paused the fighting and lifted the blockade before collapsing. Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel on November 4, as markets appeared to anticipate an arrangement of that kind.

Iran has offered to reopen the Strait within two days if Washington accepts seven conditions, including lifting the blockade, easing sanctions, guaranteeing an end to strikes and agreeing to a regional cease-fire that includes Lebanon. A broader nuclear agreement remains distant: Washington wants a verifiable commitment that Iran will not rebuild its program, while Tehran says talks can begin only after its conditions are met. Modarres said diplomacy could continue alongside escalation, leaving Tehran a possible route to yield even after fighting begins.

Any option faces potential spoilers. Israel could act independently if it opposes a deal; hard-line factions in Iran were blamed in part for the collapse of the June memorandum. Tehran may also view the midterm result as evidence that it can wait out a weakened Trump. Asked on November 4 when the war would end, Trump repeated his October 27 answer: “Whenever I want it to.”