Bank of America Global Research analysts point to a complex outlook for the coming months. While an easing of tariff pressures briefly helped core goods prices slip in May, that relief may prove temporary. Economists warn that the Iran war and tightening supply constraints could trigger a new wave of core goods inflation throughout the second half of 2026.

Signs of strain are already visible in corporate outlooks. Pet-supplies retailer Chewy has lowered its annual sales projection, a move that highlights growing anxiety over discretionary spending as households adjust to the rising cost of living.